Pentagon fires second propaganda salvo in Syria

WASHINGTON — The Pentagon's latest salvo in the propaganda war against Islamic State militants features a leaflet depicting a terrified militant awaiting to be chopped in two by the hands of a clock striking midnight.

A U.S. warplane dropped the leaflet bomb May 17 on Raqqa, Syria, the self-proclaimed capital of the Islamic State, also known as ISIL and its Arabic acronym Daesh. The leaflet since has been circulated on social media, said Army Maj. Curtis Kellogg, a spokesman for U.S. Central Command.

It marks at least the second time the air war, overseen by Central Command, has attempted to persuade ISIL terrorists to surrender rather than fight. In both cases, the military says that it's too early to determine the propaganda campaign's effectiveness, including its ability to deter militants from fighting. Airstrikes have killed as many as 10,000 ISIL fighters, the military estimates.

The leaflet seems intended to push back at the ISIL narrative of its inevitable conquest of the region, said Nicholas Heras, an expert on the region at the Center for a New American Security, a Washington think tank.

The message from the May 17 drop, in Arabic, warns ISIL fighters that they can be killed at any time and refers to the killing of one of its leaders, Abu Sayyaf, in commando raid last month.

"Your area of control is dwindling and growing smaller daily," a translation of the script reads. "We have killed many of your leaders and countless fighters. We can strike you anytime, anywhere, and you are powerless to stop us. We will never quit, and you are destined to lose your war. The clock of your destruction is ticking, and zero hour is very near."

Another portion refers to Sayyaf: "We have struck you in the heart of your claimed territory, and we have taken an Emir while you could do nothing about it."

The previous leaflet drop in March showed ISIL recruits waiting in line while monstrous figures fed them into a meat grinder. An F-15E Strike Eagle jet dropped a dispenser bomb that littered the Raqqa area with 60,000 copies. The city's population may have tripled to about 800,000 since civil war has ravaged the country.

Kellogg called Raqqa a "challenging" environment from which to collect intelligence, making assessments of the leaflet — good or bad — difficult.

"But as we continue receive and review that data, we've yet to see unintended consequences that can be attributed to this leaflet drop," Kellogg said.

The leaflet drop follows a string of ISIL successes in recent weeks: the capture of Ramadi, the Iraqi provincial capital, and Palmyra, the Syrian city with ancient treasures.

The propaganda could be intended to foment revolt among locals against ISIL control because the U.S.-led coalition intends to launch a major operation to destroy it, Heras said.

One metric of the propaganda campaign's effectiveness is the number of local uprisings in areas where leaflets have been dropped. It would make more sense, Heras said, to communicate with those local groups, help them take and hold ground from ISIL and then follow with leaflet drops.

"Otherwise, the leaflet drops come across to the local population as hollow propaganda from a disinterested world power," Heras said.